Corona Virus and Climate Change Models: How Scary Would You Like it to Be?

 

I was recently reminded of a joke from the days when I was an ad executive (before I became a lawyer).

Client: What time is it?

Ad Exec (looking at watch): What time would you like it to be?

It made me realize the similarity between advertising advice and mathematical modelling used to justify decisions about both climate change and COVID-19.

Politician: How scary is the model forecast?

Modeler: How scary would you like it to be?

What they have in common is that the client gets the answer they want. This brings me to the misuse of models by much of the media and many politicians, to make really uninformed political decisions about important issues like climate change and Covid-19.

 

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When Will Canada Get The COVID-19 Vaccine?  At What Price?

 

Keeping the world in lockdown is not a long-term solution for Covid-19.  It’s time to think ahead.  The lockdown will gradually have to be lifted, creating new risks of infection.  We cannot really be safe, we are told, until after a vaccine becomes available, usually estimated at 10 – 24 months away.

 

The Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine

 

Scientists in many countries are racing to be the first to prove a vaccine, with some saying they are nearing success. But if one succeeds, all of the 7.5 billion people on Earth cannot be vaccinated immediately.  No single producer can supply everyone quickly enough, so which countries get sufficient quantities of the vaccine, in what  priority, will depend on what each country offers the inventor.

 

Who Gets the New Vaccine First, at What Price?

 

The inventor may decide as a goodwill gesture to give away its vaccine to whoever can produce it.  But the inventor may instead decide to patent the vaccine and license (permit) producers in several countries to produce it. In either case there would be serious issues around pricing and availability.

What is the fair price for a vaccine to save millions of lives and prevent further shutdowns of the global economy?  And how many people can afford to pay for it at that price?

Since everyone can’t get the vaccine while production is ramping up, who should get it first? The countries which are the highest bidders?  And within a country, how should the scarce vaccine be distributed — to front-line workers first?  the elderly?  those in the food supply chain?  It is too early to answer these questions but not too early to think about them and plan ahead.

 

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The Washington Times Headline: “Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history”.

 

The Washington Times (not to be confused with the Washington Post) has published two recent articles with that “hoax” story.  This is one of them: Washington Times

This article makes two points: first, that the models forecasting a large number of Covid-19 deaths in the US were wildly wrong, and second, that the real number of Covid-19 deaths will not be many more than in a bad flu year.  The stories imply that the fear caused by the virus and the hugely costly political response of lockdown were unnecessary reactions to a mass media hoax.  Are these stories right?.

 

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Covid-19: How Are We Doing?

The media coverage of COVID-19 infections and deaths by country has been running along the bottom of our TV screens every day.  But what do the bare numbers and their interpretations in media stories mean without context?

The media stories are strongly influenced by the political orientation of the particular media outlet. For example, the criticism of the US, and particularly its President, has usually shown the US as the country with the highest total number of deaths in the world.  Is this criticism valid? Well, that depends upon how you look at it.

Deaths Per Million People

 

I look at it on a per million population basis, using the numbers from Worldometer. Leaving aside some outlier countries with tiny populations, the developed countries with reasonable statistics are ranked below.

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COVID-19 Creates an Urgent Need for Legal Clarity in Medically Assisted Death (MAID)

 

A small percentage of Canadians infected with COVID-19 will die from the virus.  Their death will usually be horrible: lung failure creating oxygen deprivation, causing multiple organ failures.

Ventilators are used to pump oxygen into these compromised lungs, to give the patient a chance to recover.  However, the majority don’t recover, particularly not the elderly and those with other serious medical problems.  Such patients may occupy a scarce ventilator for days or weeks, with death inevitable and foreseeable.  Canada does not have enough ventilators, and it looks like we will be unable to acquire them soon enough for everyone in need.

Some very sick patients who will not get a ventilator will die slowly, from gradual suffocation.  With insufficient ventilators, physicians will have to make the godlike decision of who lives and who dies.  Physicians may be less tortured and traumatized if they know that those they have selected to die can choose, through medically assisted death (MAID), not to die slowly and painfully.  But this law is controversial. It was held unconstitutional in a recent court decision. When the law is unsettled it is risky for physicians to administer MAID because the consequence might be criminal prosecution.

For anyone whose death is reasonably foreseeable (with or without a ventilator), the current law permits a patient to choose MAID, provided they meet the legal requirements.  Most of these legal requirements can be met, but one could be an obstacle.

This is the requirement that the patient must read a request form and sign it in the presence of two independent witnesses.  Criminal Code Section 241.2 (3) (c) requires the medical practitioner or nurse practitioner who will administer the drug to:

(c) be satisfied that the request was signed and dated by the person — or by another person under subsection (4) [if the patient is too ill to sign personally] — before two independent witnesses who then also signed and dated the request; [underlining added]

Today, it would be unsafe for two witnesses to be near someone dying from COVID – 19 to watch the patient read and sign a form.  It would only be safe to do this virtually, e.g., via smart phones.  The legal question is whether the word “before” in the above-quoted law should be interpreted literally, as meaning physically in front of the witnesses, or whether it should be interpreted purposively.  The Supreme Court of Canada has repeatedly held that our laws should be interpreted purposively, which requires determining the purpose of the law.

In my view the purpose is to ensure that the patient made the request voluntarily (without pressure from family or medical staff), understood what they were requesting, and gave their informed consent.  This can be determined without being physically present.

Another requirement is that the two witnesses must sign and date the request form.  Again, a purposive interpretation would see these two signatures as being to provide the evidentiary record of the witnessing.  This could be done through a typed signature sent via text or email, or even via oral instruction to sign on their behalf given to someone physically present with the patient.

If our pet dogs or cats are terminally ill and suffering greatly we can end their lives humanely.  Should we not be able choose the same compassionate end for ourselves if we are unlikely to recover?

The Canadian Medical Association, which issues guidelines to physicians, should obtain a legal opinion (if it has not already done so) to provide physicians with guidance on how to administer MAID in the age of COVID – 19.  If necessary, the Prime Minister should recall a quorum of Parliament (as he did last week for financial assistance) to amend the Criminal Code to remove the legal uncertainty surrounding MAID.  This would help those of us who are likely to die soon to choose not to live their last few days on earth slowly suffocating in isolation.

Emergency Powers Without An Emergency?

Prime Minister Trudeau has been pressed by reporters about the COVID-19 “nuclear option” – invoking the federal Emergencies Act.

PM: “At this time we do not see the federal emergencies act as an essential tool today, but we are continuing to look at the situation and will make decisions based on the best recommendations of science.” (Saturday, March 21)

Provinces and territories are closing their borders to inter-provincial travel and shutting down all but essential industries. A COVID-19 positive woman was arrested in Quebec City for taking a walk while quarantined.  As the financial and emotional costs of self-isolation mount, is there still no emergency?  And what comes next?

Apparently, what comes next arrived yesterday (March 25) : Bill C-13, enacted by Parliament in the early hours of the morning. It grants emergency spending powers without a declaration of emergency.  Why does it matter?

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